March retail data shows a slowdown in the economic cycle in the U.S.
Recently released economic data leaves Wall Street in a mixed trading session. The indexes are moving towards another lower week. The S&P 500 benchmark declined by 0.55% to 4,125.26 basis points, while its members’ sentiments are currently bullish by 56% and bearish by 66%. The heavy tech index on the Nasdaq fell by 0.88% amid fears of a few more interest rate hikes in the next meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down by 0.72% to 33,946.00 basis points.
Some of today’s top influencers’ key economic data is retail sales data. Today, the U.S. March retail sales data was released, and the results were bearish as expected. If not for the U.S.’s top banks, Wall Street losses were going to be enormous.
The data shows that the economic cycle slowed down in March and retail sales fell sharply. Inflationary pressure and higher interest rates were key factors in retail sales and gains; in the past three months, the pressures were huge.
Yet, despite market fears and the turmoil that followed, there were some signs of optimism. The U.S. largest banks’ share prices rose between 1.2% and 6.6%; these banks include JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Retailers in March complained about higher business costs and the effect of the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy. The retail sector is one of the most vulnerable sectors when it comes to higher interest rates and increasing borrowing costs.
As for the S&P 500 bank indexes, they posted a 3.3% month-over-month increase, despite the SVB turmoil and increasing fears.
The retail data was kind of disappointing to a large proportion of market experts, traders, and analysts. The March banking crisis shockwaves have clearly affected U.S. consumer trust and purchasing priorities. For example, the data shows a cutback in the purchase of motor vehicles and other similar products.
Thursday’s cooling inflation data boosted investors’ hopes for interest rate hikes, but the circumstances have changed. Most marketers see that the U.S. central banks will raise their key interest rates by a quarter percentage point in May.
In more recent data, the U.S. retail inventory EX auto was slightly lower than expected, and the index rose to 0.3%, 0.1% lower than the market forecast. The Michigan consumer’s expectations and sentiments were actually better than expected. Both indices exceeded the market explanation and rose to 60.3 and 63.5.
March inflation data indicate that inflation countries are easing, yet the recent Chinese and Russian union banking crises are leading to a negative decline in the money supply. The U.S. money supply remains negative and below minimum needs, which strongly supports a recession in the future.
Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is trading above Capital Spectators for value estimates. The index rose by 2.18% on Friday and is currently trading at 3.528.
In terms of the market’s future outlook, low retail sales will only accumulate the problems that the federal government has to deal with. Including a slowed economic cycle, inflation, and a negative money supply.