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Market Analysis 11 Aug 2021

FOREX: XAU/USD

aug11

With yesterday’s bearish breakout of multiple key levels,
our directional bias on Gold is very bearish .

Here are the key levels to watch for trading opportunities:

Resistance 1 – 1750.0
Closest key resistance.
The price perfectly respected that retesting it on intraday time frames.

Resistance 2 – 1789.0 – 1796.0
The second strong resistance cluster.
This time represented as an area.

Resistance 3 – 1831.0 – 1835.0
The third major supply area.

Support 1 – 1675 – 1680
Closest key support based on a recent major rejection
and year’s low.

FOREX: EUR/USD

aug11

The Nonfarm Payrolls result has been unforgiving for EURUSD as the price collapsed and is today near the 1.17050 Support, which is the first hold level before the 1.1600 Support which was made of the September-November 2020 lows.

The U.S. CPI report is the catalyst of the week from a fundamentals standpoint but if the Support levels hold, the 1D RSI is forming a Triple Bottom similar to that of Feb-March. This caused a strong rally on Support one and if the pattern is repeated target initially 1.19500 which is right below the Pivot Zone. An extension can reach as high as the Lower Highs trend-line and the 0.2 Fibonacci retracement level (1.21750).

 

General Market

U.S. stocks are seen opening mixed Wednesday, with investors digesting the news of the passage of a $1 billion infrastructure bill while awaiting the latest consumer inflation data.

At 7 AM ET (1100 GMT), the Dow futures contract was up 20 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures traded 2 points, or 0.1%, lower and Nasdaq 100 Futures dropped 20 points, or 0.1%.

The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average gained just over 160 points, or 0.5%, on Tuesday, while the broad-based S&P 500 advanced 0.1%, both closing at record highs. The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.5%, registering its second negative session in the last three.

Investors will be holding their breath Wednesday ahead of the release of the consumer price index for July, as this could cause them to update their thinking as to when the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin scaling back its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program.

The data is due at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT), and analysts are looking for a gain in the headline figure of 5.3% over last year, marginally lower than June’s 5.4%, which was the biggest monthly gain since August 2008.

Also of interest will be the news that the Senate has approved the framework for the Democrats controversial $3.5 trillion spending plan. This follows the passing of the $1 trillion infrastructure package, which is set to result in substantial investment in roads, bridges, airports and waterways.

The second-quarter corporate earnings season is drawing to a close, and it has been a generally positive one with around 90% of the S&P 500 companies that reported results beating expectations.

Wendy’s (NASDAQ:WEN) and Canada Goose (NYSE:GOOS) are set to report before the opening bell Wednesday, while Lordstown Motors (NASDAQ:RIDE) and eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) are due after the close.

Oil prices weakened, continuing to be weighed by the Covid-induced restrictions in China, the second largest consumer in the world, even amid signs of continued healthy U.S. demand. Prices were also pressured lower following reports that the White House will call on OPEC to pump more in order to rein in rising gasoline prices.

By 7 AM ET, U.S. crude futures were down 1.3% at $67.39 a barrel, while Brent futures dropped 1.3% at $69.75 a barrel.

Bloomberg reported Wednesday that several Asian refiners have already asked for less oil from Saudi Arabia for next month. Demand in the region, and China in particular, has been hit by the mobility restrictions put in place to combat the fast-spreading delta Covid variant.

Still, industry data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week, and investors will look to the release of the weekly official figures from the EIA later Wednesday for confirmation of this trend.

 

Written by Editor

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