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Market Analysis 05 July 2021

05 july

Stock : C* CityGroup

july 7 -1

july7 -2

 

Trend analysis

The value has suffered a correction in the last session of -1.61%. The monthly variation of -12.04% is increasing the decline from the annual maximum of -12.37%. Despite the improvement in recent sessions, the short-term trend is bearish and we could see a rejection above 1393.38.Short-term comment

Active order: SELL IF LOW THAN 1399.40 (ENTRY PRICE: 1354.84)

Medium term comment

The medium-term trend of the price of C * remains bullish this week. The stock maintains a relative performance higher (4.24%) than the MSCI World Index (MXN). Volatility has decreased in the last month. We should be on the lookout for the presence of the 1387.96 support as it could lead to a halt to the recent price decline.

Stock : IBM

Trend analysis

ibm1

ibm2

The value has undergone a correction in the last session of -5.38%. The monthly variation of -4.13% is increasing the decline from the annual maximum of -7.85%. The fall is in full swing. It is necessary to see a deceleration of the correction to establish probable support and bounce levels.Short-term comment

Active order: HOLD

Medium term comment

The medium-term price trend for IBM * remains bullish this week. The stock maintains a relative performance higher (1.52%) than the MSCI World Index. Volatility has increased in the last month. We should be vigilant for the presence of resistance 2852.91, as it could lead to a halt in the recent price surge. The situation of the technical indicators (daily and weekly RSI), warns about the proximity of a ceiling (arrest of the rise) in the market. Watch out for possible bearish divergences in RSI that would confirm this scenario.

FOREX: USD/JPY

It would be a good time to buy in that area since the price is crossing the support, however it continues with the upward trend, however, you could wait for the price to fall to 110.73 to make the purchase, if it breaks that price and continues to fall you could wait to play the next support.

FOREX: EUR/USD

The formation of a bullish reversal candlestick in EUR/USD can be a good
technical sign for the Euro bulls. However, the buyers must exercise caution before betting big.

EUR/USD is still below the key moving averages on the hourly, 4Hour and daily charts . Besides,
the main support level is still at 1.1720 level.

That being said, Friday’s bullish reversal candlestick could still lead to some pullback this week.
So, if EUR/USD doesn’t fall below the 1.1810 level, there is a chance for a recovery to the 1.20 level.

I would be looking for a low risk buy entry near 1.1825 with SL below 1.18 and TP at 1.1980.

General Market

The week after the US employment report is usually one of the lightest of the month in terms of the publication of economic data and the next week shortened by the holiday this Monday will be no exception.

The minutes of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting may give investors a glimpse into the behind-the-scenes discussions by policy makers after a sharp change in stance caused market turmoil last month.

The European Central Bank will also publish the minutes of its latest meeting, while China will publish its long-awaited inflation figures. And with markets entering the second half of the year, investors are wondering if the impressive run of the first half can continue.

Here’s what you need to know to start your week.

1. Fed minutes

Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, in which officials began talks about gradually tapering bond purchases and indicating that interest rate hikes could come earlier than previously anticipated, will be released on Wednesday.

The minutes come after Friday’s non-farm employment report, which showed the United States created the most jobs of the past 10 months in June, indicating the economy ended the second quarter with strong momentum as it continues. economic reactivation.

The strong data did little to ease concerns that a strong recovery and rising wages could lead the Fed to begin easing its ultra-relaxed monetary policy earlier than expected.

That dynamic looks set to continue to weigh down markets ahead of the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting and its annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in August.

2. Data from the services sector of the Supply Management Institute

The ISM index reading on service sector activity will be released on Tuesday and is expected to show continued strong growth after hitting record highs in May on the reopening made possible by coronavirus vaccines. The report could also highlight current labor restrictions, as recruitment remains low, leading companies to offer higher salaries to attract staff.

This topic will likely be echoed in the JOLT job vacancy report. It is expected to show a new record for job openings, but recruitment remains very low as potential workers are unable or unwilling to work.

Investors will also be on the lookout for Thursday’s figures on initial claims for unemployment benefits. Last week’s report showed that initial requests fell to the lowest level since March 2020, when widespread lockdown measures were imposed to curb the first wave of the pandemic.

3. We enter the second half of the year

With the markets already in the second half of 2021, investors are now wondering if the impressive run of the first half can continue.

Although US equity markets remain near record highs, some market analysts have noted signs of caution in some areas of the market.

Travel and leisure stocks, along with value stocks, have been weighed down by concerns about the rapid spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19, while US Treasury yields have remained subdued. amid concerns about a potentially more aggressive Fed.

Some investors have also noticed a concentration of market gains in a smaller group of stocks in recent weeks, which some see as a sign of declining sentiment in the overall market.

Investors will now turn their attention to the second-quarter earnings release season and progress on President Joe Biden’s infrastructure bill, which could help the stock market maintain momentum.

4. Minutes of the ECB

The ECB will publish the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting on Thursday. ECB observers will also be on the lookout for news of various meetings to be held in the coming weeks as part of the banks’ review of monetary policy strategy.

The bank wants to renew its inflation target – currently set close to but not above 2% – and aims for the revision to be ready in September.

On Wednesday, the eurozone powerhouse Germany will publish its industrial production figures and the European Commission will publish the updated economic forecast for the European Union.

5. China’s inflation

China is going to publish its data on both consumer price inflation

 

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