S&P 500 Analysis 02 July 2021

Market Analysis 12 Oct 2021


Trend analysis

Short-term comment

The value has undergone a correction in the last session of 0.52%. The value is close to annual highs and could attack those levels. The market is somewhat overbought in the short term and lacking in trend. There is a possibility of seeing a return to levels around 4248.18.

Active order: SELL IF LOW THAN 3888.75 (ENTRY PRICE: 3550.50)


Medium term comment

The medium-term price trend of the S&P 500 (USD) remains bullish this week. The security maintains a relative behavior equal to the MSCI World Index (MXN). Volatility has decreased in the last month. We should be on the lookout for the presence of support 4134.94 as it could lead to a halt to the recent price decline.


A few quick observations.

At the bottom of the chart we see the June’s monthly VWAP – eight days ago we were under it.

At the close today we touched 1.41 Fib level right at the close for another record day!

Tomorrow is Non-Farm Payrolls, I’ll hazard a guess (and my money) in this case it will be good. Moreover SPX investors apparently are exciting about it! All kidding aside…

Look at GM’s sales for the second quarter – the General is BACK! Point is the economy is picking up steam. So this is counter intuitive, good is bad for the stock market, things are better, with stronger GDP growth forecasted by to the IMF.

Good enough to send the markets lower as Federal Reserve tapering becomes a reality, maybe sooner than 2023?

None of this is Earth shattering – frankly this market needs a breather.

The SPX is making all time highs while the US dollar continues ticking up towards the 93 level, as mentioned in a previous post attached at the bottom – related ideas.

This market kept moving up as the US Dollar continued to fall, well its NOT falling anymore its at its highest level since April 6th and the SPX was about 200 points lower.

Its interesting that the 20 day median price is at .618 Fibonacci Retracement and the .786 is also where there remains a lonely VPOC – there is an elegance to it.

Anyone’s guess where the market will go exactly but these levels outlined are not inconsequential.

Is this actionable? Yes – but only in the Futures market, as NFP is 8:30AM.

FYI the median price for all of 2021 on ES Futures is about 3900 – we are 413 points above that!

Written by Editor

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